Troubador The Little (illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting

Released: 28/05/2018

ISBN: 9781789013429

Format: Paperback

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The Little (illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting

A short introduction to the practice and pitfalls of short term forecasting – and how to increase it


This is a guidebook about short term Operational Forecasting – the sort that is done to determine how much product you need to source or how many people you need to draft in to meet customer demand. 

It is organized under 5 headings:
1. The purpose of operational forecasting
2. Understanding demand
3. Forecasting methods
4. Understanding forecast performance
5. Managing forecast performance.

The first two sections and part of section three are essential reading for anyone involved in or responsible for operational forecasting. The rest of the book is most helpful for practitioners.

The aim is to produce something that provides a useful introduction to operational forecasting for both practitioners and their bosses by filling in the gap that lies between a naïve common sense understanding of short term forecasting and the complex technicalities of mathematical forecasting techniques. 

The authors background as a self-taught business orientated forecasting nerd with limited mathematical expertise qualifies who tell it the way it is makes him well qualified to fill this gap. 

The book has been designed to be simple but not simplistic, using short and to the point learning points supported by clear graphics. It is technically sound but also highly practical. 

The hope is that it will help create a common language to help people talk intelligently about forecasting and help stop people doing dumb stuff – which is where most of the potential for improvement lies. It will also help people design good forecast processes and informed software purchasing decisions. In doing so it will help people realize that forecasting is important and that investing in people as well as software will generate enormous benefits for many businesses.

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Steve Morlidge

Steve Morlidge has 30 years of practical experience in designing and running performance management systems in Unilever, including three years as the lead of a global change project. He is a former chairman of the European Beyond Budgeting Round Table and now works as a management thinker, writer and speaker, drawing on his years of experience at the leading edge of performance management thought and practice.

He is driven by an obsession with understanding how organizations work, and can be made to work better for the benefit of the organization and its shareholders but also for the people who work within it, whose experience of work is rarely fulfilling and purposeful. This manifests itself in an interest in both the philosophy and science of social organizations and the implications for day to day practice and practioners.

Steve Morlidge published Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting, John Wiley, in 2010, and ‘The Little Book of Beyond Budgeting’ published by Matador in early 2017. He is on the editorial board of Foresight, a forecasting practitioner’s journal published by the International Institute of Forecasting to which he regularly contributes. He is also a cofounder of CatchBull, a supplier of cutting edge forecasting performance management software.

Steve Morlidge is a visiting fellow at Cranfield University, Bedfordshire, UK and has a PhD from Hull Business School in Yorkshire, UK focusing on the application of systems concepts to the design of complex organizations. He completed his BA with honors, and he is a qualified management accountant (CIMA).

He is married to Sue and has three grown children and a small white dog and lives in the Surrey countryside, south of London.

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