Published: 15/09/2017
ISBN: 9781788032674
Format: Paperback

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About the Author

Graham Duxbury started his career in the early 1970s with one of the founding international oil consultancies, Petroleum Economics Ltd. There he developed expertise in oil market analysis. He subseque... read more

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A Guide to Energy Forecasting
…part exercise in smoke and mirrors
by Graham Duxbury

This book explores the purposes, methodologies, modelling techniques and weaknesses in energy forecasting. It provides a rare appraisal of what is generally known as the ‘end use sector’ approach to global demand forecasting.

It exposes the fallibilities that are hidden in the seductive power point presentations of forecasters and the false sense of accuracy bestowed upon them. It nevertheless stresses that forecasting remains crucial and of value to the industry.

By raising awareness of the forecasting risks and the often ‘smoke and mirrors’ nature of the exercise as well as offering commentary on how the process and use of forecasts could be improved, although not necessarily the accuracy, this book is must-read for those in government, corporate planning and financing sectors of the energy industry who rely on forecasts to make policy, investment and trading decisions.

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